June 2025 Investment Summary

A positive month for the Passive range with returns ranging from +0.97% for Passive 1 to +1.13% for Passive 2.
*P Acc share class with data sourced from FE analytics as at 30 June 2025.

June 2025 was a positive month for markets and the portfolios, in absolute terms.

Most major equity markets continued their recovery, driven by tech strength and easing geopolitical tensions. Emerging Markets strong performance continued, supported by a weaker US dollar. Latin American equities, specifically Mexico and Brazil outperformed after resilient domestic economic data. FTSE 100 returns flatlined at 0.05%, subdued by weaker domestic data, with lower retail sales and economic growth. Higher exposure to underperforming sectors such as healthcare and energy also provided headwinds. The Stoxx 600 fell around 1.5%, as investors rotated back into US stocks, while advancements in US-EU trade talks stalled ahead of the July deadline. Top performing sectors included energy, technology and industrials with consumer defensive the lowest. The S&P 500 increased over 4.9% and Nasdaq climbed 6.6% with technology, energy and communication services sectors the top performers, the largest fall came from consumer defensive. A US and China trade truce has been ‘signed’ according to President Trump to de-escalate global trade tensions, although details of the deal are still to be confirmed.

US stocks reached new record highs, bouncing back from Trumps tariff shock. The S&P has increased more than 23% since its 15-month low on April 7. The Federal Reserve held interest rates in June, as Fed chair Jay Powell stated “for the time being, we are well positioned to wait to learn more about the likely course of the economy before considering any adjustment to our policy stance”. 10 year US Government bond yields decreased, yields closed at 4.24%, from 4.41% reaching highs of 4.51%.

June’s US labour market data showed payrolls increased by 147,000, above forecasts highlighting continued resilience from the jobs market, however a slowdown could happen with uncertainty surrounding tariffs, trade and immigration policies where employers could adopt a more cautious hiring stance. Unemployment edged down to 4.1%. US consumer confidence rose for the first time in six months, but households remain worried over tariffs, inflation and persistently high prices.

The Middle East conflict intensified, with Israel and Iran trading missiles across borders, before US intervention in striking Iranian nuclear facilities led to a ceasefire being brokered. It was immediately broken, before relative calm was restored to the situation. Conflicting reports have followed regarding the amount of damage US strikes have caused on Iranian nuclear facilities. Market reaction was relatively considered, but crude oil prices were volatile with Iran a key exporter of oil across the globe. Prices rose from $63 a barrel pre conflict, to almost c.$90 at the height of the tensions before falling back to around $68.

The economic environment has remained resilient, but rising geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty may begin to weigh on sentiment. The recent escalation between Iran and Israel has heightened global risk, with legal challenges to the U.S. administration’s proposed tariffs have slowed their rollout. This delay offers a temporary reprieve for policymakers and trade partners, but markets remain sensitive to developments.

WS Prudential Risk Managed Active - Tactical asset allocation activity

We maintain a small equity overweight of +1.5%, made up of a basket of US, Europe, Asia and GEM. We hold overweight positions in US Treasuries, UK Gilts and Real Estate (REITs), with underweights in US and European Corporate bonds.