November 2024 Investment Summary

A positive month for the Active range with returns ranging from +0.51% for Active 1 to +1.72% for Active 5.
*P Acc share class with data sourced from FE analytics as at 29 November 2024.

November 2024 was a better month for portfolios generally.

Most major equity markets saw gains in November, with global stocks rising back to all-time highs. Chinese stocks pared back last month’s gains. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 rose from last month, with the S&P 500 increasing 5.4% and Nasdaq 7.5%. Financials and Consumer Discretionary led the sector specific performance, while healthcare continued to lag. The FTSE 100 made smaller gains of 1.7%, with markets recouping losses from the fallout of October’s UK budget announcement. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index was flat this month with Information Technology and Communication services the top two sectors registering a positive return over the month.

Donald Trump was announced as the new US President at the start of November, with a Republican party sweep secured. Government bond prices were higher as the ten-year Treasury yield lowered to 4.18% from 4.28% over the month, hovering at seven week lows, with investors concerned that Trump’s policy proposals could be inflationary. Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell stated the Fed will wait and see how Trump’s plans unfold before it makes policy adjustments. “The decisions we’re making right now are not about that” “they’re about what’s happening in the economy now”. It remains prepared to respond, if labour market data weakens unexpectedly, with markets pricing a further 0.25% cut at the next meeting in December at 87%.

US labour market data this month showed payrolls increased by 227,000 in November, higher than forecast. It marks a strong recovery from October’s weak “hurricane affected” jobs report - the weakest since December 2020, and highlights the current labour markets resilience. US retail sales, measuring the quantity of goods bought, rose slightly more than expected while consumer confidence rose for the fifth month running to a seven-month high, as household expectations for business conditions and personal finances improved after the US Election. Unemployment data increased to 4.2%, from October’s four month low of 4.1%.

Tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of further escalation in the region have subsided somewhat. A US-brokered ceasefire has taken effect in Lebanon raising hopes of an end to the year- long conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. The agreement calls for an initial 60-day ceasefire and the withdrawal of the Lebanese militant group and Israeli troops from southern Lebanon. The conflicts impact still remains limited on the global economy as Brent Crude prices remain range-bound rising to $74/barrel from $73/barrel in November.

Central banks cutting cycles have been rapidly reassessed in recent weeks, following stronger data, fiscal/policy uncertainty and some stickier inflation. A robust US economy, with the potential for increased spending and tax cuts, should be good for risk assets, but regional differentiation could be larger than usual, with decoupled economic cycles and the potential for trade wars. Heightened geo-political tensions remain a significant near-term risk.

WS Prudential Risk Managed Active - Tactical asset allocation activity

We currently have an equity overweight of +1.35%, made up of a diversified basket across the US, UK, Asia and GEM. This is funded from small underweights in US Credit, European credit and cash. We also hold small overweight positions in US Treasuries, UK Gilts and Real Estate (REITs).

Emerging Markets

The fund invests in emerging markets. Generally less well regulated than the UK. There is an increased chance of political and economic instability with less reliable custody, dealing and settlement arrangements. The market(s) can be less liquid. If a fund investing in markets is affected by currency exchange rates, the investment could either increase or decrease. These investments therefore carry more risk.

High Yield Bonds

The fund invests in high yield bonds. High yield bonds carry a greater risk of default than investment grade bonds, and economic conditions and interest rate movements will have a greater effect on their price. Income levels may not be achieved and the income provided may vary.

Value of Investments

The value of investments, and any income can fall, as well as rise, so you could get back less than you invested. Neither capital nor income is guaranteed.

Investments Long Term

Investments should be regarded as long term and are not suitable for money which may be needed in the short term, you should always have a sufficient cash reserve.

Property

The fund invests in Property funds, property shares or direct property. In particular the following risks will apply:- The property market is illiquid and this can, in exceptional circumstances, lead to times in which clients are unable to dispose of part or all of their holding. Property valuations are made by independent agents but are ultimately subjective and a matter of judgement. Property transaction costs are high (typically around 7% due to legal costs, valuations and stamp duty)

Derivative Exposure

The fund invests in derivatives as part of its investment strategy, over and above their use for Efficient Portfolio Management (EPM). Investors should be aware that the use of these instruments can, under certain circumstances, increase the volatility and risk profile of the Fund beyond that expected of a fund that only invests in equities. The fund may also be exposed to the risk that the company issuing the derivative may not honour their obligations which in turn could lead to losses arising.

Umbrella Liabilities

If the liabilities of one fund were to exceed its assets, the other funds within the scheme might have to transfer across money to cover the liabilities.

Solvency of Bond Issuers

If the fund you choose invests in bonds there is a risk that the issuer may default, resulting in a loss to the portfolio.

Returns Are Not Guaranteed

What you receive when you sell your investment is not guaranteed; it depends on how your investments perform.

Inflation

Inflation will reduce the real value of your investments in future.

Taxation and Tax Relief

Levels of taxation and tax relief are subject to change.